美国的外汇储备有多少?

作者:华夏之声  于 2007-7-9 10:50 发表于 最热闹的华人社交网络--贝壳村

作者分类:经济|通用分类:其它日志

看之下,这个题目有点怪。可是我们每天听到中国的外汇储备有多少,日本的有多少,那么我们是否应该知道美国有多少?有谁能告诉我?我知道,没人能告诉我。

当然有常识的人会说,中国的外汇储备有多少亿美元,美元是国际货币,美国当然也储备美元,但在美国这就不是外汇了。那么,直接了当又合乎逻辑的问题是:美国储备了多少亿美元?答案:只有美国联邦储备局知道。

事实上,本来美国有不同的货币测度值来确定货币供应量,叫做M0M1M2M3。可是从2006联储局撤销了M3,也就是不再公布M3M3当中有什么呢?除了包含了M2之外,还包括了存款超过10万美元的储蓄帐户,欧元帐户和再购买协议。联储局撤销了M3的借口是M3并不比M2有更多附加信息,M3对货币政策也没有什么价值。但是华尔街的解读是联储局印的钱太多,美国欠外国的钱太多,所以联储局不愿意让人知道了。

从以前的资料来看,美国的货币供应总量M3(也许叫需求总量更合适),从1995年的4万亿美元快速增长到2005年底的11万亿美元,而且在2005年底的增长速度(约每年1万亿美元)是历史上最快的,正是在这样的背景下联储局撤销了M3

所以美国实际上变成了发行美元,操纵美元的大庄家。像中国,日本,欧洲这些实体无视这样一个无法知道这个庄家的底细的现实,还不厌其烦地公布自己的底牌。当一个国家的外汇储备比较少而又在增长的时候,你公布它可以保证你的货币稳定,吓退索罗斯这样的炒家。但是中国在外汇储备超过4000亿美元之后,谁还敢来骚扰人民币?况且人民币本来就不可以自由兑换。现在不断地公布,不断地增长,反倒让人家说中国在操纵货币,并且增加了针对中国的贸易保护主义措施,防止中国购买它们的资产。

中国的财经官员,应该停止坐在美元堆上得意洋洋,应该好好想想怎样保护那得来不易的外汇的固有价值了。

(说明:本人非经济学家,解释某些经济学用语时未免浅薄,但分析问题的方向方法应该没有问题,请见谅)

 

附录一:联储局关于停止公布M3的公告:

On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.

Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks).

M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

 

附录二:M0M1M2M3的定义:

Components of US money supply (M1, M2, and M3) since 1959

The most common measures are named M0 (narrowest), M1, M2, and M3. In the United States they are defined by the Federal Reserve as follows:

M0: The total of all physical currency, plus accounts at the central bank that can be exchanged for physical currency.

M1: M0 - those portions of M0 held as reserves or vault cash + the amount in demand accounts ("checking" or "current" accounts).

M2: M1 + most savings accounts, money market accounts, small denomination time deposits and certificate of deposit accounts (CDs) of under $100,000.

M3: M2 + all other CDs, deposits of eurodollars and repurchase agreements.

As of March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 will no longer be published by the Federal Reserve, ostensibly because it costs a lot to collect the data but doesn't provide significantly useful data The other three money supply measures will continue to be provided in detail.


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